TBR vs WSN
Final: WSN 2 - 5 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution +9.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution +7.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative