CLE vs TBR
SP Nick Martinez vs Shawn Armstrong
Final: TBR 7 - 3 CLE
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Situational — Guardians has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 36pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +2.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +2.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Guardians win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Guardians · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time