WSN vs NYM
SP Jefry Yan vs Andrew Alvarez
Final: NYM 6 - 7 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.8pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Mets has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Mets in a dead heat.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.8pp).
Mets edge · contribution -7.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.5pp).
Mets edge · contribution -6.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time