NYM vs WSN

NYM 72%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mets ahead by 44pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4 / 4.8
SP xFIP: 4.03 / 4.51
Bullpen FIP: 4 / 4.8
Lineup wOBA: 0.306 / 0.335
WAR: 9.74 / 20.78
Lineup xwOBA: 0.319 / 0.331
Barrel%: 8.7 / 9.1

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp