NYM vs WSN
Final: WSN 1 - 4 NYM
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mets ahead by 44pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp).
Mets edge · contribution +9.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).
Mets edge · contribution +8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative