BOS vs CHC
SP Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa
Final: CHC 3 - 4 BOS
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (11.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 70pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (11.6pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +11.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +9.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time