COL vs ARI
SP Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland
Final: ARI 7 - 2 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (6.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rockies has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 32pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (6.1pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -6.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.1pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution -5.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time