CHC vs MIA
SP Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga
Final: MIA 8 - 2 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cubs ahead by 12pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -5.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Cubs edge · contribution +0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -4.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time