MIA vs CHC
SP Clay Holmes vs Tyler Phillips
Final: CHC 3 - 10 MIA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.6pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Marlins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Marlins has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Marlins ahead by 41pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.6pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +7.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.3pp).
Marlins edge · contribution +6.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Marlins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Marlins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time