SDP vs MIA
SP Sandy Alcantara vs Walker Buehler
Final: MIA 3 - 7 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Marlins has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 25pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Negligible gap in SP FIP.
Even
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Negligible gap in Bullpen FIP.
Even
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time