COL vs SEA
SP Kade Anderson vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Final: SEA 2 - 1 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rockies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 50pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -10.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -8.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time