COL vs SEA
SP Bryan Woo vs Gabriel Hughes
Final: SEA 5 - 4 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 29pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -10.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -2.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -8.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time