TBR vs ATH
SP Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (1pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (1.7pp). Athletics has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Rays ahead by 50pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (10.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution +10.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.5pp).
Rays edge · contribution +8.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time