WSN vs PHI
SP Zack Wheeler vs Jared Simpson
Final: PHI 3 - 0 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (11pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.8pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Phillies has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.7pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 63pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (11pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -11pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.8pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -2.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -9.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time