PHI vs WSN

PHI 56%

Final: WSN 10 - 4 PHI

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (12.2pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Phillies ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.78 / 4.8
SP xFIP: 3.55 / 4.51
Bullpen FIP: 3.78 / 4.8
Lineup wOBA: 0.31 / 0.335
WAR: 9.74 / 20.78
Lineup xwOBA: 0.319 / 0.331
Barrel%: 7.4 / 9.1

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp