TEX vs BOS
SP Jake Bennett vs MacKenzie Gore
Final: BOS 3 - 7 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (0.8pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 13pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (5.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -5.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -4.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time