CLE vs CHW
SP Anthony Kay vs Parker Messick
Final: CHW 3 - 6 CLE
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Guardians has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 47pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +4.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +3.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Guardians win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Guardians · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time