ATL vs TBR
SP Freddy Peralta vs AJ Smith-Shawver
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Braves has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Braves ahead by 11pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Braves has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp).
Braves edge · contribution +0.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Braves edge · contribution +0.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Braves win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Braves · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time