SDP vs WSN
SP Jake Irvin vs Nick Pivetta
Final: WSN 2 - 3 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 35pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +6.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.6pp).
Padres edge · contribution +5.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Nationals @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 11h before game time