SEA vs ATH
SP Gage Jump vs Bryan Woo
Final: ATH 0 - 2 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.7pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Athletics has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 31pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.7pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +10.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.9pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +8.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time