SEA vs ATH
SP Kade Morris vs Logan Gilbert
Final: ATH 7 - 6 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.3pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 56pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.3pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +11.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +9.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time