SDP vs NYY
SP Gerrit Cole vs Michael King
Final: NYY 3 - 4 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (6.2pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Yankees ahead by 16pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (6.2pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -6.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.2pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -5.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Yankees @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time