KCR vs TOR
SP Spencer Arrighetti vs Randy Dobnak
Final: TOR 1 - 6 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.2pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.2pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -8.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.8pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -6.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time