TOR vs KCR

SP Noah Cameron vs Spencer Arrighetti

Royals 50%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.2pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Royals ahead by 1pp.

Factor BalanceBlue Jays favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Royals 4.63vsBlue Jays 3.95

Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.2pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +8.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Royals 4.54vsBlue Jays 4.06

Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +1.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Royals 4.63vsBlue Jays 3.95

Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.8pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +6.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Royals 0.314vsBlue Jays 0.302

Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Royals 16.4vsBlue Jays 14.8

Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Royals 90.0%vsBlue Jays 50.0%

Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Royals edge · contribution -20pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Royals 100%vsBlue Jays 0%

Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Royals edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Royals 0.313vsBlue Jays 0.295

Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Royals 8.0%vsBlue Jays 5.8%

Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Royals 1483vsBlue Jays 1502

Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Royals @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Royals vs Blue Jays)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-26Royals @ Blue Jays0-3

Predicted:TOR→Actual TORCorrect

2026-08-25Royals @ Blue Jays5-3

Predicted:TOR→Actual KCRWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time