TOR vs KCR

SP Seth Lugo vs Max Scherzer

Blue Jays 52%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.4pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7pp).

Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Blue Jays ahead by 4pp.

Factor BalanceBlue Jays favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Royals 4.65vsBlue Jays 3.95

Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (8.4pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +8.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Royals 4.55vsBlue Jays 4.05

Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +1.5pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Royals 4.65vsBlue Jays 3.95

Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Royals 0.313vsBlue Jays 0.302

Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Royals 16.1vsBlue Jays 14.6

Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Royals 90.0%vsBlue Jays 50.0%

Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Royals edge · contribution -20pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Royals 0.313vsBlue Jays 0.295

Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Royals 8.0%vsBlue Jays 5.9%

Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Royals 1483vsBlue Jays 1502

Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Royals @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time