TEX vs TBR
SP Nick Martinez vs Trevor Williams
Final: TBR 7 - 6 TEX
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Rangers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Rangers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Rangers ahead by 3pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -1.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).
Rays edge · contribution -1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time