LAD vs STL
SP Quinn Mathews vs Tarik Skubal
Final: STL 2 - 3 LAD
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cardinals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 33pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +2.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +1.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time