LAD vs STL

SP Michael McGreevy vs Eric Lauer

Dodgers 79%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 58pp.

Factor BalanceDodgers favoredFactors 2:0(Lineup wOBA·Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Cardinals 4.06vsDodgers 3.84

Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +2.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Cardinals 4.16vsDodgers 3.84

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Cardinals 4.06vsDodgers 3.84

Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.2pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +2.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Cardinals 0.308vsDodgers 0.331

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +1.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Cardinals 14.1vsDodgers 22.8

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Cardinals 30.0%vsDodgers 60.0%

Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +15pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Cardinals 0.321vsDodgers 0.337

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Cardinals 7.6%vsDodgers 8.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Cardinals 1489vsDodgers 1511

Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Cardinals @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time