KCR vs MIA
SP Sandy Alcantara vs Michael Wacha
Final: MIA 3 - 7 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Marlins has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Royals ahead by 9pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -7.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time