KCR vs MIA

SP Tyler Phillips vs Randy Dobnak

Royals 56%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp). Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 12pp.

Factor BalanceMarlins favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Marlins 4.00vsRoyals 4.61

Marlins has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -7.3pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Marlins 4.20vsRoyals 4.52

Marlins has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Marlins 4.00vsRoyals 4.61

Marlins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -6.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Marlins 0.319vsRoyals 0.315

Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Marlins 17.1vsRoyals 17.9

Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Marlins 50.0%vsRoyals 80.0%

Royals has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Royals edge · contribution +15pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Marlins 0.308vsRoyals 0.312

Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Marlins 6.6%vsRoyals 7.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Marlins 1504vsRoyals 1483

Marlins has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Marlins edge · contribution -0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Marlins @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time