WSN vs ATL
SP Grant Holmes vs Brad Lord
Final: ATL 9 - 0 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (8.3pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Braves ahead by 43pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Braves has the edge in SP FIP (8.3pp).
Braves edge · contribution -8.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Braves edge · contribution -1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.9pp).
Braves edge · contribution -6.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Braves @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time