WSN vs ATL

SP AJ Smith-Shawver vs Jake Irvin

Braves 82%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Braves ahead by 64pp.

Factor BalanceBraves favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Braves 4.02vsNationals 4.74

Braves has the edge in SP FIP (8.6pp).

Braves edge · contribution -8.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Braves 4.07vsNationals 4.48

Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Braves edge · contribution -1.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Braves 4.02vsNationals 4.74

Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.2pp).

Braves edge · contribution -7.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Braves 0.317vsNationals 0.330

Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.7pp

WAR

weight 8%

Braves 15.6vsNationals 20.0

Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Braves 80.0%vsNationals 40.0%

Braves has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Braves edge · contribution -20pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Braves 100%vsNationals 0%

Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Braves 0.317vsNationals 0.327

Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Braves 8.6%vsNationals 8.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Braves 1507vsNationals 1488

Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution -0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Braves @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Braves vs Nationals)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-02Nationals @ Braves2-4

Predicted:ATL→Actual ATLCorrect

2026-08-01Nationals @ Braves3-8

Predicted:ATL→Actual ATLCorrect

2026-07-31Nationals @ Braves2-6

Predicted:ATL→Actual ATLCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time