PIT vs SFG
SP Landen Roupp vs Jared Jones
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 27pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +2.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.6pp
WAR
weight 8%Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.3pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Negligible gap in Recent Form.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Giants @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time