PIT vs SFG
SP Logan Webb vs Paul Skenes
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Pirates ahead by 38pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.7pp
WAR
weight 8%Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.3pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Giants @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time