LAA vs NYY

SP Cam Schlittler vs Reid Detmers

Yankees 73%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (6pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5pp).

Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Angels has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Yankees has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 45pp.

Factor BalanceYankees favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Yankees 3.66vsAngels 4.16

Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Yankees 3.77vsAngels 4.20

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -1.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Yankees 3.66vsAngels 4.16

Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Yankees 0.315vsAngels 0.303

Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Yankees 18.5vsAngels 9.3

Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Yankees 50.0%vsAngels 20.0%

Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Yankees 0%vsAngels 100%

Angels has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Angels edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Yankees 0.321vsAngels 0.304

Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Yankees 9.6%vsAngels 8.0%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Yankees 1502vsAngels 1478

Yankees has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.6pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Yankees @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Yankees vs Angels)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Yankees @ Angels1-10

Predicted:NYY→Actual LAAWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time