LAA vs NYY

SP Elmer Rodríguez vs Walbert Ureña

Yankees 79%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Yankees has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 58pp.

Factor BalanceYankees favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Yankees 3.67vsAngels 4.16

Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -5.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Yankees 3.76vsAngels 4.21

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -1.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Yankees 3.67vsAngels 4.16

Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -4.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Yankees 0.313vsAngels 0.302

Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Yankees 17.6vsAngels 9.0

Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Yankees 60.0%vsAngels 20.0%

Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -20pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Yankees 0.321vsAngels 0.303

Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Yankees 9.5%vsAngels 8.0%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Yankees 1502vsAngels 1478

Yankees has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.6pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Yankees @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time