TOR vs SEA
SP Logan Gilbert vs Max Scherzer
Final: SEA 0 - 7 TOR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Blue Jays ahead by 9pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution -0.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mariners @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time