TOR vs SEA

SP Kade Anderson vs José Soriano

Mariners 57%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Mariners ahead by 14pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Mariners 3.89vsBlue Jays 3.96

Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Mariners 3.87vsBlue Jays 4.06

Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Mariners 3.89vsBlue Jays 3.96

Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Mariners 0.304vsBlue Jays 0.302

Mariners has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Mariners 12.1vsBlue Jays 14.6

Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Mariners 60.0%vsBlue Jays 40.0%

Mariners has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Mariners 67%vsBlue Jays 33%

Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Mariners 0.315vsBlue Jays 0.295

Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Mariners 7.5%vsBlue Jays 5.8%

Mariners has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Mariners 1481vsBlue Jays 1502

Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Mariners @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Mariners vs Blue Jays)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Mariners @ Blue Jays1-8

Predicted:SEA→Actual TORWrong

2026-07-05Blue Jays @ Mariners0-4

Predicted:SEA→Actual SEACorrect

2026-07-04Blue Jays @ Mariners0-11

Predicted:SEA→Actual SEACorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time