NYM vs HOU

SP Ethan Pecko vs Zac Thornton

Mets 61%

Final: HOU 6 - 3 NYM

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (6.8pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mets ahead by 22pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 1:1

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Astros 4.61vsMets 4.04

Mets has the edge in SP FIP (6.8pp).

Mets edge · contribution +6.8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Astros 4.47vsMets 4.05

Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).

Mets edge · contribution +1.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Astros 4.61vsMets 4.04

Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.7pp).

Mets edge · contribution +5.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Astros 0.317vsMets 0.306

Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Astros 17.1vsMets 9.9

Astros has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Astros 50.0%vsMets 40.0%

Astros has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Astros edge · contribution -5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Astros 100%vsMets 0%

Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Astros edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Astros 0.313vsMets 0.318

Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Mets edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Astros 7.9%vsMets 8.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Astros 1516vsMets 1487

Astros has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Astros @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Astros vs Mets)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Astros @ Mets2-6

Predicted:NYM→Actual NYMCorrect

2026-08-28Astros @ Mets3-1

Predicted:NYM→Actual HOUWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time