NYM vs HOU
SP Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mets has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mets ahead by 46pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp).
Mets edge · contribution +7.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Mets edge · contribution +5.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Astros edge · contribution -0.6pp
WAR
weight 8%Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution -0.5pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Mets edge · contribution +5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Mets edge · contribution +0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).
Astros edge · contribution -0.7pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Astros @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Astros vs Mets)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time