NYM vs HOU
SP Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean
Final: HOU 2 - 6 NYM
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Mets has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mets has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mets ahead by 46pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (7.1pp).
Mets edge · contribution +7.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Mets edge · contribution +1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.9pp).
Mets edge · contribution +5.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Astros edge
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Astros @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time