MIN vs CHW

SP Jordan Hicks vs Zebby Matthews

White Sox 56%

Final: CHW 1 - 5 MIN

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Twins has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Twins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Twins has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with White Sox ahead by 12pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

White Sox 4.30vsTwins 4.28

Twins has the edge in SP FIP (0.2pp).

Twins edge · contribution +0.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

White Sox 4.33vsTwins 4.41

White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

White Sox 4.30vsTwins 4.28

Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.2pp).

Twins edge · contribution +0.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

White Sox 0.322vsTwins 0.319

White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

White Sox 19.7vsTwins 16.3

White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

White Sox 60.0%vsTwins 40.0%

White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

White Sox 100%vsTwins 0%

White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

White Sox 0.319vsTwins 0.312

White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

White Sox 8.5%vsTwins 7.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

White Sox 1499vsTwins 1508

Twins has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Twins edge · contribution +0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Twins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

White Sox @ Twins · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (White Sox vs Twins)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29White Sox @ Twins3-2

Predicted:MIN→Actual CHWWrong

2026-08-28White Sox @ Twins7-4

Predicted:MIN→Actual CHWWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time