MIN vs CHW
SP Erick Fedde vs Bailey Ober
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Twins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Twins has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Twins has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Twins in a dead heat.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Twins has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Twins edge · contribution +0.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%White Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Twins has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Twins edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.1pp
WAR
weight 8%White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.3pp
Recent Form
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
White Sox edge · contribution -0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Twins has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Twins edge · contribution +0.2pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Twins win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
White Sox @ Twins · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (White Sox vs Twins)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time