MIL vs TEX

SP Kumar Rocker vs Dustin May

Brewers 82%

Final: TEX 7 - 4 MIL

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — Brewers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Brewers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 64pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rangers 4.09vsBrewers 3.54

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +6.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rangers 4.07vsBrewers 3.66

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +1.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rangers 4.09vsBrewers 3.54

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +5.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rangers 0.314vsBrewers 0.325

Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rangers 16.6vsBrewers 20.3

Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rangers 50.0%vsBrewers 70.0%

Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Rangers 0%vsBrewers 100%

Brewers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rangers 0.307vsBrewers 0.321

Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rangers 7.4%vsBrewers 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Rangers 1498vsBrewers 1516

Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Brewers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rangers @ Brewers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rangers vs Brewers)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Rangers @ Brewers3-5

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

2026-08-28Rangers @ Brewers1-6

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time