MIL vs TEX

SP Cal Quantrill vs Shane Drohan

Brewers 80%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (6.5pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.4pp).

Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Brewers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 60pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 1:0(SP FIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rangers 4.09vsBrewers 3.55

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (6.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +6.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rangers 4.06vsBrewers 3.68

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rangers 4.09vsBrewers 3.55

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.4pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +5.4pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rangers 0.315vsBrewers 0.325

Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rangers 16.9vsBrewers 19.9

Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rangers 50.0%vsBrewers 70.0%

Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rangers 0.308vsBrewers 0.321

Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.3pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rangers 7.3%vsBrewers 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Rangers 1498vsBrewers 1516

Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Brewers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Brewers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rangers @ Brewers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rangers vs Brewers)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Rangers @ Brewers1-6

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time