DET vs LAD

SP Tyler Glasnow vs Framber Valdez

Dodgers 75%

Final: LAD 6 - 1 DET

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (25pp). Dodgers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Dodgers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 50pp.

Factor BalanceDodgers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Dodgers 3.86vsTigers 3.93

Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Dodgers 3.84vsTigers 4.05

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Dodgers 3.86vsTigers 3.93

Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Dodgers 0.332vsTigers 0.315

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Dodgers 22.9vsTigers 14.7

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Dodgers 70.0%vsTigers 20.0%

Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (25pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -25pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Dodgers 100%vsTigers 0%

Dodgers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Dodgers 0.338vsTigers 0.318

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Dodgers 8.5%vsTigers 8.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Dodgers 1511vsTigers 1518

Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Dodgers @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Dodgers vs Tigers)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Dodgers @ Tigers1-2

Predicted:LAD→Actual DETWrong

2026-08-28Dodgers @ Tigers2-1

Predicted:LAD→Actual LADCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time