DET vs LAD

SP Blake Snell vs Keider Montero

Dodgers 68%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Dodgers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 36pp.

Factor BalanceDodgers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Dodgers 3.88vsTigers 3.93

Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Dodgers 3.85vsTigers 4.04

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Dodgers 3.88vsTigers 3.93

Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Dodgers 0.332vsTigers 0.316

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Dodgers 22.6vsTigers 14.5

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Dodgers 60.0%vsTigers 20.0%

Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -20pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Dodgers 0.337vsTigers 0.319

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Dodgers 8.5%vsTigers 8.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Dodgers 1511vsTigers 1518

Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Dodgers @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Dodgers vs Tigers)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-28Dodgers @ Tigers2-1

Predicted:LAD→Actual LADCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time