CLE vs KCR

SP Seth Lugo vs Parker Messick

Guardians 65%

Final: KCR 1 - 11 CLE

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (8.4pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7pp).

Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Guardians has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 31pp.

Factor BalanceGuardians favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Royals 4.60vsGuardians 3.90

Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (8.4pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +8.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Royals 4.52vsGuardians 3.89

Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +1.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Royals 4.60vsGuardians 3.90

Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7pp).

Guardians edge · contribution +7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Royals 0.315vsGuardians 0.304

Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Royals 17.6vsGuardians 14.9

Royals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Royals 90.0%vsGuardians 80.0%

Royals has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Royals edge · contribution -5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Royals 100%vsGuardians 0%

Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Royals edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Royals 0.312vsGuardians 0.304

Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Royals 8.0%vsGuardians 6.0%

Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Royals 1483vsGuardians 1485

Negligible gap in Elo.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Guardians win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Royals @ Guardians · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Royals vs Guardians)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Royals @ Guardians8-3

Predicted:CLE→Actual KCRWrong

2026-08-28Royals @ Guardians3-0

Predicted:CLE→Actual KCRWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time