ATL vs COL

SP Mason Adams vs Tyler Mahle

Braves 85%

Final: COL 2 - 3 ATL

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (9.4pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Braves has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Braves has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Braves ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceBraves favoredFactors 3:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rockies 4.83vsBraves 4.05

Braves has the edge in SP FIP (9.4pp).

Braves edge · contribution +9.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rockies 4.73vsBraves 4.10

Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).

Braves edge · contribution +1.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rockies 4.83vsBraves 4.05

Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.8pp).

Braves edge · contribution +7.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rockies 0.325vsBraves 0.317

Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Rockies edge · contribution -0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rockies 7.8vsBraves 15.3

Braves has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rockies 20.0%vsBraves 60.0%

Braves has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Braves edge · contribution +20pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Rockies 0%vsBraves 100%

Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rockies 0.309vsBraves 0.318

Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rockies 6.6%vsBraves 8.6%

Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Rockies 1488vsBraves 1507

Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Braves win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rockies @ Braves · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rockies vs Braves)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-29Rockies @ Braves1-2

Predicted:ATL→Actual ATLCorrect

2026-08-28Rockies @ Braves4-6

Predicted:ATL→Actual ATLCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time