ATL vs COL

SP Ryan Feltner vs Martín Pérez

Braves 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Braves has the edge in SP FIP (9.5pp). Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Braves has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Braves has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Braves has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Braves ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceBraves favoredFactors 3:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP·Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rockies 4.84vsBraves 4.05

Braves has the edge in SP FIP (9.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +9.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rockies 4.74vsBraves 4.10

Braves has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).

Braves edge · contribution +1.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rockies 4.84vsBraves 4.05

Braves has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.9pp).

Braves edge · contribution +7.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rockies 0.325vsBraves 0.316

Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Rockies edge · contribution -0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rockies 8.0vsBraves 14.7

Braves has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.5pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rockies 20.0%vsBraves 50.0%

Braves has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Braves edge · contribution +15pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rockies 0.310vsBraves 0.317

Braves has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rockies 6.6%vsBraves 8.6%

Braves has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Rockies 1488vsBraves 1507

Braves has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Braves win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rockies @ Braves · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time