STL vs BAL

SP Trevor Rogers vs Gordon Graceffo

Orioles 52%

Final: BAL 5 - 7 STL

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Orioles ahead by 4pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Orioles 4.06vsCardinals 4.07

Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Orioles 4.23vsCardinals 4.21

Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).

Cardinals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Orioles 4.06vsCardinals 4.07

Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Orioles 0.316vsCardinals 0.309

Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Orioles 17.4vsCardinals 14.1

Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Orioles 50.0%vsCardinals 40.0%

Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Orioles 100%vsCardinals 0%

Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Orioles 0.325vsCardinals 0.322

Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Orioles 8.7%vsCardinals 7.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Orioles 1503vsCardinals 1489

Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Orioles @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Orioles vs Cardinals)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-26Orioles @ Cardinals8-7

Predicted:STL→Actual BALWrong

2026-08-25Orioles @ Cardinals13-1

Predicted:STL→Actual BALWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 8h before game time