STL vs BAL
SP Kyle Bradish vs Michael McGreevy
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Cardinals ahead by 9pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Negligible gap in SP FIP.
Even
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Negligible gap in Bullpen FIP.
Even
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -0.2pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Negligible gap in Recent Form.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Orioles vs Cardinals)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time